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रशिया-युक्रेन वाद काय आहे?या युद्धाचा भारतावर परिणाम होईल का? या प्रश्नांची उत्तर जाणून घ्या एका क्लिकवर

जग हादरणार!…

रशिया युक्रेनवर(UKRAINE) टाकणार हा महाविध्वंसक बॉम्ब, हल्ल्यासाठी सैन्य तयार, अशा अनेक बातम्या आत्ता आपण ऐकत आहोत.

पण आत्ताच्या आधुनिक जगात प्रॉक्सी वॉर अर्थात छुप युद्ध महत्त्वाचं मानलं जातं. म्हणजे उघडपणे युद्ध करायचं नाही, थेट वार करायचा नाही ,पडद्यामागून किंवा दुसऱ्याच्या खांद्यावर बंदूक ठेवून वार करायचा.

काश्मीर मध्ये पाकिस्तान हेच करतय, पण सध्या रशिया युक्रेन मध्ये जे होतय ते मात्र उघड युद्ध आहे.

मग हा रशिया युक्रेन वाद नेमका काय आहे?  युक्रेनचा ताबा रशियाला का हवाय? युक्रेनच अस्तित्व मान्य करायला रशिया का तयार नाही?. आणि या युद्धाचा भारतावर काय आणि कसा परिणाम होईल?  या सर्व प्रश्नांची उत्तरं देणारा हा लेख.

सोव्हिएत युनियनमधून युक्रेन १९९१ साली वेगळा झाला आणि रशिया- युक्रेन या अंतर्गत संघर्षाची ठिणगी पडली. तसं पाहायला गेलं तर यूक्रेन हा रशियाचाच एक भाग होता. पण आता युक्रेनच स्वतःचं असं एक स्वतंत्र अस्तित्व आहे. अशातच आता युक्रेनची नाटो देशांशी जवळीक होत आहे आणि यामुळेच रशिया चिंतेत आहे.

नाटो(NATO) संघटना म्हणजे काय?

तर या संघटनेतील सदस्यत्व देशावर जर दुसऱ्या कोणत्या देशाने हल्ला केला तर नाटो संघटनेतील सर्व देश एकत्र येऊन त्याचा प्रतिकार करतात. आणि या संघटनेचे सदस्यत्व युक्रेनला मिळू नये अशी भूमिका रशियाने मांडली आहे.

उद्या जर अमेरिका किंवा इतर कोणत्याही देशाशी युद्ध करण्याची वेळ आली तर रशियाला एक ‘बफरझोन'(BUFFERZONE) म्हणजेच सुरक्षित जागा असावी. जिथ प्रत्यक्ष युद्ध केलं जाईल. यासाठीच रशियाला युक्रेन वर ताबा हवा आहे.  युक्रेन वर दबाव टाकण्यासाठी सीमेवर सैन्यही तैनात केले आहे. यावरून गेल्या काही महिन्यात या दोन देशांमध्ये प्रचंड तणाव निर्माण झालेला आहे.

युक्रेनमध्ये निर्माण झालेली परिस्थिती बघून भारतानं युक्रेन मध्ये राहणाऱ्या २०,००० भारतीयांना शक्य तितक्या लवकर युक्रेन सोडून मायदेशी परत येण्याचे आवाहन केले आहे.

या युद्धाचे परिणाम भारतासाठी देखील कुठेतरी घातक ठरणारच आहेत. अनेक दिवसांपासून युक्रेन रशिया या वादानं जगाचं लक्ष वेधलेलं आपण पाहत आहोत. दोन्ही देशांच्या लष्करांमधील तणाव पाहता हा वाद म्हणजे तिसऱ्या युद्धाची नांदी असल्याच चित्र दिसू लागलय. या युद्धाचा परिणाम युरोप, अमेरिका यांसारख्या देशांबरोबरच भारतावर देखील होणार आहे.  या युद्धामुळ भारताच्या व्यापारावर परिणाम होऊन अर्थव्यवस्थेला धोका पोहोचण्याची शक्यता आहे.

युक्रेन दूतवासांच्या वेबसाईटवर असलेल्या माहितीनुसार २०२० मध्ये भारत आणि युक्रेन या दोन देशांमध्ये २.६९ अब्ज डॉलरचा व्यापार झाला होता.  भारताला खत,अणूभट्टी, बॉयलर अशा अनेक गोष्टी युक्रेनकडून निर्यात केल्या जातात.तर भारताकडून युक्रेनला औषधे, इलेक्ट्रिकल मशिनरी अशा वस्तू पाठवल्या जातात.

अणुभट्ट्या आणि बॉयलरचा विचार केला तर रशिया आणि युक्रेन हे भारतासाठी मोठे पुरवठादार आहेत. या देशांमध्ये युद्ध झालं तर भारताला आवश्यक बाबी मिळणं बंद होईल. यामुळे भारताच्या अनुऊर्जाच्या कामात अडथळा निर्माण होऊ शकतो.

दोन्ही देश भारतासाठी व्यापाराच्या दृष्टिकोनातून महत्त्वाचे आहेत पण जर युद्धजन्य परिस्थिती निर्माण झाली.  आणि भारताला कोणा एका देशाचीच बाजू घेण्याची वेळ आली तर मात्र तणाव वाढू शकतो.  कारण, कच्च्या तेलाच्या बाबतीतही भारत इतर देशांवर अवलंबून आहे.

कच्च्या तेलाचा पुरवठा करणाऱ्या देशांपैकी रशिया एक मुख्य देश आहे. युद्धामुळे कच्च्या तेलाचे दर वाढले तर आपल्याला महागाईचा जोरदार फटका सहन करावा लागेल हे मात्र नक्की.

त्यामुळे हे युद्ध रशिया आणि युक्रेनची हानी करेलच पण भारतालाही व्यापाराच्या दृष्टीने हे युद्ध अजिबात परवडणार नसेल.

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